The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 47 million 95% —
- Above 48 million 93% —
- Above 49 million 81% +11
- Above 50 million 49% −5
- Above 51 million 14% —
- Above 52 million 6.5% −4
- Above 53 million 4.5% —
- Above 54 million 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$60K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 47 million, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 95% · Sep 29: 95% · Sep 30: 95% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 95% · Oct 3: 95% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 47 million; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Travel Nevada reports that Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for calendar year 2026 is above 47 million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the statewide Visitor Volume for January–December 2026 published in Travel Nevada’s Q4 2026 Discover the Facts report.
Settlement sources: Travel Nevada
See it on Kalshi ↗