The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Chance of yes 5.5% +1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$29K
Yes, 7 days+1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 3.5% · Sep 29: 3.5% · Sep 30: 4.5% · Oct 1: 5% · Oct 2: 4.5% · Oct 3: 5.5% · Oct 4: 6% · Oct 5: 5.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the MLBPA and MLB agree to any new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) after Jul 8, 2026 and before Dec 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A public announcement of a reached agreement or agreement in principle is sufficient to satisfy the Payout Criterion, unless otherwise specified. Formal execution or ratification is not required if such an announcement occurs within the specified time period. Likewise, if a formal execution of the agreement or a formal ratification by the relevant players' association membership occurs within the specified time period, the market will resolve Yes regardless of whether a public announcement was made before, at the same time as, or after such execution or ratification. Subsequent modifications, amendments, implementation details, or delays do not affect the resolution once a qualifying agreement, execution, or ratification has occurred.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; The Athletic; Sports Business Journal; The Wall Street Journal; ESPN; The Washington Post; the Governing League; Bloomberg News; Reuters
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