The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 4.3 billion gallons 96% —
- Above 4.4 billion gallons 96% —
- Above 4.5 billion gallons 81% —
- Above 4.6 billion gallons 39% +5
- Above 4.7 billion gallons 25% —
- Above 4.8 billion gallons 8.5% —
- Above 4.9 billion gallons 6.5% —
- Above 5.0 billion gallons 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 4.3 billion gallons, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 96% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 96% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 4.3 billion gallons; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons.
Settlement sources: Iowa Renewable Fuels Association
See it on Kalshi ↗