The odds
as of Oct 5, 13:33 UTC- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above 39% +4
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2% 38% —
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below 14% −5
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below 4% —
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2% 3% —
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above 3% —
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below 1% —
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2% 1% —
Traded today$921
Traded in all$130K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 35% · Sep 29: 37% · Sep 30: 37% · Oct 1: 44% · Oct 2: 41% · Oct 3: 41% · Oct 4: 36% · Oct 5: 36%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, Headline refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, and Core refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Headline CPI MoM and Core CPI MoM each use ECONSTAT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗