The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Harry Kane 50% +3
- Lamine Yamal 44% −2
- Kylian Mbappe 3.5% −1
- Lionel Messi 3.5% −1
- Rodri 1.5% —
- Erling Haaland 1% —
- Declan Rice 1% —
- Vitinha 1% —
Traded today$183K
Traded in all$12.8M
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Harry Kane, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 45% · Sep 29: 45% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 34% · Oct 2: 42% · Oct 3: 48% · Oct 4: 49% · Oct 5: 50%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Harry Kane; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: ESPN; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC
Sports event contracts aren't legal everywhere; the venue's own rules on age and location apply. OddsOnAir shows prices and never takes or advises a trade.
See it on Kalshi ↗