The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Above $750 83% +6
- Above $1,000 72% −2
- Above $1,250 49% −5
- Above $1,500 31% —
- Above $1,750 16% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Above $750, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 79% · Sep 29: 79% · Sep 30: 79% · Oct 1: 79% · Oct 2: 79% · Oct 3: 79% · Oct 4: 79% · Oct 5: 83%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $750; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 is above $750, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2027 Permanent Fund Dividend amount per eligible recipient published by the State of Alaska. If the state officially includes an energy-relief or similar payment in the reported PFD amount, that amount is included; separately reported payments not included in the official PFD amount are excluded.
Settlement sources: State of Alaska
See it on Kalshi ↗