The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 83.5% 96% +3
- Above 84% 79% −1
- Above 84.5% 62% —
- Above 85% 45% −2
- Above 85.5% 31% —
- Above 86% 9.5% —
- Above 86.5% 12% —
- Above 87% 5.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$619
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Above 83.5%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 93% · Sep 29: 93% · Sep 30: 93% · Oct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 93% · Oct 3: 93% · Oct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 83.5%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Fiscal.ai
See it on Kalshi ↗