The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Below $3.80 8.5% +7
- Below $3.90 8% +5
- Below $4.00 13% +8
- Below $4.10 7.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$687
Traded in all$45K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Below $4.00, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 6.5% · Sep 29: 8% · Sep 30: 7% · Oct 1: 5.5% · Oct 2: 6% · Oct 3: 7.5% · Oct 4: 11% · Oct 5: 7.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Below $4.00; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗