The odds
as of Oct 10, 05:25 UTC- Before July 2027 65% −29
- Before April 2027 60% −36
- Before 2027 33% —
- Before December 17% −11
- Before November 8% +2
- Before October 5% —
- Before September 1% —
- DEACTIVATED 0% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$552
Traded in all$63K
Favourite, 7 days+27 pts
Before July 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 49% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 6: 50% · Oct 8: 51% · Oct 9: 70% · Oct 10: 69%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before July 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Manon leaves Katseye before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: KATSEYE; Manon
See it on Kalshi ↗